India and Pakistan must reconsider their rigid positions on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as tensions escalate. Since January 2023, India has issued four notices demanding renegotiation of the 1960 treaty, recently suspending all meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) until Pakistan agrees to dialogue. This move follows a prolonged stalemate that has tarnished the treaty’s once-lauded status as a model for international water-sharing agreements.
Historically, the IWT has successfully resolved disputes, such as the Baglihar Dam in 2007 and a contention over India’s Neelum project in 2013. However, disputes regarding the Kishenganga and Ratle projects, which intensified in 2016, have complicated matters. Pakistan’s decision to invoke a neutral expert and seek a Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) was met with India’s boycott of PCA hearings, leading to further gridlock. The World Bank, a co-signatory and guarantor of the treaty, added to the confusion by allowing two parallel dispute resolution processes.
The atmosphere has shifted dramatically, with leaders from both countries engaging in increasingly hostile rhetoric. Prime Minister Modi’s declaration post-Uri attack that “blood and water” cannot coexist epitomizes this growing tension.
This escalation in discord mirrors the overall deterioration of India-Pakistan relations, with political engagement and trade at a standstill. The 2021 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) is under threat due to rising terrorist incidents and casualties among Indian armed forces.
While reopening treaty discussions is conceivable, reaching a new consensus will be challenging. The upcoming SCO Heads of Government meeting on October 15-16 presents a potential opening for dialogue. Addressing contemporary issues like climate change, renewable energy, and hydropower in relation to the Indus could pave the way for revitalizing the 64-year-old treaty. The manner in which these discussions unfold will be critical in determining whether the IWT can regain its former reputation as a beacon of hope in a troubled region.
Vocabulary
- Stalemate (अड़चन) – A situation in which neither side can win or make progress.
- Renegotiation (पुनः वार्ता) – The process of discussing an agreement again to change its terms.
- Dispute (विवाद) – A disagreement or argument.
- Neutral Expert (निष्पक्ष विशेषज्ञ) – An impartial party that evaluates a situation or issue.
- Boycott (बहिष्कार) – To abstain from participating in or engaging with something as a form of protest.
- Guarantor (गारंटर) – A person or entity that provides a guarantee or assurance.
- Hostile (दुश्मनी) – Unfriendly or antagonistic.
- Ceasefire (युद्धविराम) – A temporary suspension of fighting or hostilities.
- Revitalizing (पुनर्जीवित करना) – Bringing new life or energy to something.
- Contemporary (आधुनिक) – Existing or occurring in the present time; modern.